Given this history, the proposition that the EU's summit in Copenhagen next week will finally decide, once and for all, whether Turkey does or does not belong to Europe would appear risible. Clear-sighted, informed and objective thinking is required. Even if, by some miracle, all other summit issues were cleared away, the age-old Turkish question has the capacity to make the counting of angels on pin-heads look straightforward. Yet the pressure to cut away the detritus of the past and give Turkey a firm date for commencing EU accession talks is formidable. And the consequences of a fudge, a deferral or an outright rejection may be momentous. A Turkish rebuff at the very moment of the EU's largest-ever enlargement could be a defining choice. Europe as an ideal, as an inclusive, cooperative project and as a political, economic and legal entity would have discovered its limits - and its limitations.

Pressure for a "yes" to Turkey comes from the Turks themselves, kept waiting for 40 years and now, brandishing a sheaf of human rights reforms and led by a new, majority-backed government, grimly determined not to be denied. It also comes from Greece, which sees a chance to bury old enmity, and from Cypriots who, almost despite themselves, badly need the latest UN peace plan to work. The pressure comes, too, from others in Europe who rightly hope to fortify Turkish democracy and terminally weaken the military's backroom sway. It comes, presumptuously, from the US, fixated on Turkey's strategic importance regarding Iraq and Nato. Most persuasively, perhaps, the pressure for Turkey's inclusion arises from its rare marriage of Islamic and western values, an exemplary tryst in these divisive times.

Following meetings with Tony Blair and the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the EU to demonstrate that it was not an exclusively "Christian club" but willing to include predominantly Muslim states in its ranks.

Mr Erdogan's explicit challenge to rightwing prejudices came as he embarked on an intensive lobbying of European capitals ahead of next month's meeting of the EU Copenhagen summit which will consider Turkey's candidature.

Ankara is pressing to be given a firm date for entry as has been given to the 12 other applicant states - Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Romania and Bulgaria - which are due to join in 2004 and 2007.

Britain is a strong supporter of Turkey's cause, but this month the former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing caused uproar by demanding that Turkey never be allowed to join the EU. In an interview with Le Monde, he described Turkey as "a different culture, a different approach, a different way of life".

In his speech at the Savoy hotel in London yesterday, Mr Erdogan said Turkey was better prepared for EU entry than some other candidate states and he challenged fears of a clash of civilisations between Islam and the west.

"Turkey is far more ready to enter the EU than some other countries," said Mr Erdogan, whose Justice and Development party won a landslide victory three weeks ago.

"The majority of the Turkish people are Muslims. Turkey's entrance to the EU will influence and affect how the other Muslim nations of the world view the EU in a very positive way. It will be the best example of how Islam and democracy can function together. Turkey will bring a harmony of cultures rather than a clash of civilisations.

"The Copenhagen summit will be a test because we do not see the EU as a Christian club. [Turkey's accession] will help the countries of the Black sea and Caspian sea perceive the EU in a positive way. The EU will gain a lot and become a major force in the world."

The deadline is the EU's summit in Copenhagen on December 12 when several new countries in eastern Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to be offered formal membership invitations.

Cyprus is among the aspirants and it will get the green light in Denmark, despite its continuing partition, the result of the 1974 Turkish invasion of the north of the island.

Just in case there is any lingering doubt about that, the Greek government, allied to the Nicosia government led by President Glafcos Clerides, warned this week that any delay in Cyprus's accession schedule could lead Greece to block enlargement for the other nine candidates.

These Greek concerns are almost certainly misplaced. But it remains the case that EU leaders would like to see the Cyprus dispute resolved, and the country reunited through some form of federal or bicommunal arrangement, before enlargement becomes a reality in 2004.

The key, as always, is to be found in Ankara. Rauf Denktash, leader of the Turkish Cypriot community in northern Cyprus, is ill and says he needs more time to study a UN peace plan that has already been accepted in outline by the Greek side. But if the Turkish government makes a strategic decision in favour, pressure on Denktash to go along with it may prove irresistible.

This brings us to Turkey's new de facto leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the landslide victor of recent general elections. He says Turkish membership of the EU is his number one priority. He has been touring European capitals since his election triumph, urging his case.

Unlike previous Turkish leaders, Erdogan has explicitly linked acceptance of his aim of obtaining a date for Turkish accession talks with the EU to resolving the Cyprus dispute. His tacit message seems clear enough. Let us in and Cyprus can be sorted.

In a meeting with Erdogan at Downing Street yesterday, Tony Blair reportedly repeated strong British support for Turkish EU membership talks. Meanwhile, the senior British Cyprus envoy, David Hannay, is busily travelling between concerned capitals this week, pressing the UN framework plan.

Oddly enough (but entirely sensibly), Greece - Turkey's historic rival and sparring partner - has also backed Turkey's EU membership as a way of resolving other bilateral and multilateral disputes. One of these concerns is the sharing of Nato assets with the EU's proposed military force. Turkey, a Nato member, has effectively blocked such cooperation. But this Turkish position can also now be seen as a piece to be sacrificed as part of the much bigger diplomatic chess game.

Like Greece and like Britain, the US also strongly backs Turkey's EU hopes. The US is not a member of the EU, of course. But for strategic reasons, mostly currently relating to Iraq and US need of Turkey's border bases, it has been lobbying EU members intensely to let Turkey in. This week, for example, George Bush personally telephoned the Danish prime minister, currently president of the EU council and Copenhagen host, to make the case.

So what's the problem? It has many faces and many hidden aspects. It was expressed in one respect recently by the former French president, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who said Turkish accession would be "the end of Europe". He claimed Turkey could not really be deemed a European country since all but a tiny part of it is, strictly speaking, in Asia.

This geographical particularism disguises, of course, a deeper angst - spreading beyond France to Germany, Austria and other European countries - that the predominantly Muslim Turkey, with its 70 million inhabitants (second only to Germany among EU members) would fundamentally alter the nature of the EU in all sorts of discomforting ways, not least financial but also political and cultural.

To which arguments Erdogan replies, logically, that this might actually be thought a good thing for both democracy and inter-faith understanding. Or else Europe may be regarded as an exclusive "Christian club" which, constitutionally and ideologically at least, it has never admitted to being. This would have negative effects on Turkish and Muslim world opinion, he warns.

Never a man to miss an opportunity to muddy the waters, Romano Prodi, the Italian president of the European commission, put in his tuppence worth this week. After meeting Erdogan, he said discouragingly that Turkey still had more work to do implementing various human rights reforms enacted earlier this year.

Prodi is on the record as opposing a Turkish "rendezvous" date being set in Copenhagen. Prodi can be ignored - he has no vote - but his opinion, shared, if not articulated, by many others, cannot.

It thus remains unclear whether Erdogan will get his wish. And that lack of clarity could yet collapse the Cyprus process and have knock-on consequences for Greco-Turkish relations, for EU defence and security policy, for Turkish cooperation in the war on terror and in Iraq, and thus on overall EU-US relations.

It is all very complicated. And yet it is quite simple really. Europe has been flirting with Turkey for 40 years. It is like a young girl intrigued, fascinated, but a bit frightened, by a handsome stranger. Now the old men of Europe, acting like protective uncles or guardians, are trying to suppress the relationship before it goes any further.

Many Greek Cypriots are worried that they are being pushed too fast and towards a bad solution. Some appear almost caught by surprise at the rapid build-up of international attention - not least due to the ineffectual negotiations between Cyprus President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash since January this year.

Just two days before the UN plan was published, Clerides was arguing that they should be delayed until after Cyprus's presidential elections due in February and emphasising that Cyprus will not trade European accession for a bad deal on reunification. Since then he has declared himself ready for a historic compromise. But even the optimistic George Vassiliou, chief negotiator with the EU, is not entirely positive: "The timing is unfortunate, no doubt" he says "people are worried about the solution but they clearly want a solution".

And others are much more negative. "It is unfair to say the Greek Cypriots have four weeks to reach an agreement" says Tassos Papadopoulos, leader of the centre-right Democratic party and strong front runner in the presidential campaign. "It is a window of opportunity only if a dilemma is put before the Greek Cypriots" he continues "but it is a concocted, forced dilemma to tell us we must decide now".

Much of this defensiveness, observers say, is positioning in advance of negotiations and attempts to draw lines in the sand. Change and painful concessions are looming and the Greek Cypriots are not expected to like the inevitable compromise solution. Papadopoulos asserts that in the face of the Turkish occupation a solution cannot be fair "so we seek a viable solution". Raising the stakes, he insists that "if what Clerides and Denktash agree violates individual rights, for example on property, the individual will still have the right of recourse to the European Court [to challenge the settlement]".

If a deal is struck, Clerides will be looking for the support of all the party leaders in the National Council, a key advisory body. Some question whether Papadopoulos might turn it into an election issue - although if an agreement is reached fast enough, the elections would be cancelled, with new elections later for a federal President for the whole island.

Curiously, Papadopoulos has the support of the large Cyprus Communist Party, Akel, in his election campaign - a Faustian deal, says one observer, to bring Akel into government. But Akel has always been generally more pro-settlement and its support will be crucial in gaining public acceptance for any solution. Senior Akel party member, Andros Kyprianou, while concerned about a possible bad deal, acknowledges that with the UN plan out "we will concentrate all attention on the content of the plan".

Opinions in Cyprus are also mixed as to whether Turkey is finally ready to do a deal. Erdogan, the AKP leader, has made a number of positive statements about the need for negotiations to reach a deal. But Greek Cypriots were pleased and then disappointed when immediately after the elections, Erdogan indicated his support for a Belgian-style solution i.e. a single federal state, only to insist a day or two later he was misinterpreted and that the solution must be based on two states (i.e. recognition of northern Cyprus). The Cypriot assumption is that he was got at by the Ministry of foreign affairs and/or the army. George Vassiliou is not surprised at this switch "the policy of the Turkish establishment has insisted on two states. They know this isn't leading anywhere but they have got the facts of that policy. It is two steps forward, one step back".

Turkish Cypriot leaders do not yet sound ready to compromise. Tahsin Ertugruloglu, responsible for foreign affairs and defence in Denktash's government, is unashamedly hardline and obdurate: "Our views are what they were earlier. We find ourselves being told by the EU and everyone else 'hurry up, time is short'. Basically, that's tough luck. We had nothing to do with this calendar or application. Cyprus has not applied. Greek Cyprus has applied and is not entitled to speak on behalf of Turkish Cyprus".

Despite the uncompromising tone, it is generally expected that Denktash will follow whatever line comes from Ankara - though it is also seen as vital that Denktash signs up to a deal given his popularity in Turkey itself. And some will quietly admit that an agreement on principles by December could be possible.

In fact, it is the leaders of the Turkish Cypriot opposition parties who sound closest to the views of the international community. They appear to be the most positive on the chances the next month offers and most ready to compromise. They, of course, are not in the negotiations but they do strongly reflect underlying public opinion in northern Cyprus.

Mehmet Ali Talat, President of the left-wing Republican Turkish Party (CTP), says he is an optimist "because now it is an international and European problem. The solution to the problem, all the parameters are on the table, known. The time is right". It is also he says the only time for the EU and UN to get concessions from the Greek Cypriot side.

Turkish Cypriot business and NGOs joined forces in June to issue a strong statement in favour of a compromise settlement and joining the EU. Ertugruloglu calls it a conspiracy "they meet with whoever their masters are, Brussels, Athens, South Cyprus, actively involved in a conspiracy to get rid of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the President, and as Cypriots enter the EU". But public opinion is clearly not on his side.

Strong external pressure will be needed if the two sides are to come to a rapid solution - and Greece has an important role to play here too. But despite complaints at the short timescale, it is generally agreed that all the key issues and likely solutions are well-known, with the most sensitive being sovereignty, property and territory, and security.

Another highly controversial issue, not directly confronted in the UN plan, is that of the Turkish settlers in northern Cyprus, thought to number as many as 120,000 out of the total population of 200,000 in the North, though the figures are highly contentious. Honorary president of the Greek Cypriot Social Democrats, Vassos Lyssarides, calls this deliberate policy of demographic change "a war crime, a crime against humanity". Many Greek Cypriots call for financial incentives to be given for the settlers to return to Turkey but as one observer says it is a "pipe dream" that all the settlers will go.

If a deal is done, a single referendum is expected on both the settlement and EU accession. Hard-liners complain at this: "if the government agrees and signs before a referendum, it's a blackmail" says Lyssarides "we rely on international solidarity, so people will vote yes even if it's a bad solution". Observers believe that the Greek Cypriot public is more positive, pragmatic and realistic than many of the politicians and will vote for a compromise solution. But this certainly cannot be guaranteed.

If a full deal cannot be reached, a fallback position could be agreement on a set of political principles or framework, annexed to the EU accession treaty. If even this is a step too far, then a divided Cyprus will join the European Union and the Brussels policy of linking accession and reunification will have failed.

Greek Cypriots are sanguine at this prospect not least because they see their bargaining power rising once they are in the EU. But such a situation would deal a major blow to EU-Turkey relations. And it is the Turkish Cypriot opposition leaders who are most concerned at such a prospect. Huseyin Angolemli, leader of the Communal Liberation Party in northern Cyprus, predicts that many more Turkish Cypriots will emigrate if a divided Cyprus joins. "Everything will be destroyed" he says "because our people will be in a hopeless position".

The possibility of a breakthrough settlement is there. But hard bargaining and immensely complex diplomacy will be involved in getting to a solution and in selling it to the public. The international spotlight is falling on Cyprus and the next few weeks will show the outcome.

· Kirsty Hughes is a European affairs specialist based in London and Brussels

Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, yesterday gave both sides a week to decide if his plan for a solution in Cyprus could form the basis for a settlement.

The island has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded following an Athens-inspired rightwing coup.

But Guenter Verheugen, the EU official responsible for negotiations on inviting Cyprus to join the union in mid-December, said both sides now needed to act fast.

"All efforts should be undertaken to make use of the very limited time left and to bring the process to a positive outcome," Mr Verheugen said.

"The EU has repeatedly expressed its preference for a reunited Cyprus to join the European Union and urged the leaders of the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities to seize the opportunity and reach an agreement before the end of the accession negotiations this year."

Glafcos Clerides, the Greek Cypriot president, said he would begin discussing the plan with party leaders later today.

Mr Annan's peace plan would reunite the island into a single country with two equal states and a federal government.

According to the Cyprus Mail newspaper, it provides for a president and vice-president, who will rotate between the communities; a 48-seat senate, which will be 50-50 between the Greek and Turkish communities; and a 48-seat lower chamber, made up in proportion to the population.

The plan also calls for the dissolution of the Cypriot army, with Greek and Turkish army units deployed to police the agreement, the Cyprus Mail says.

Cypriots who were dispossessed of their properties in 1974 will enjoy a right to return only if their properties fall within a number of unspecified "territorial adjustments," according to the paper. Otherwise, they will be compensated.

Greek Cypriot refugee group, the Kyrenia Refugees Association, today denounced this, calling the plan an attempt to legitimise Turkish occupation of the island's north.

"The plan is an attempt to legitimise the Turkish occupation of north Cyprus and to disregard the judgments of the Human Rights Court of the Council of Europe supporting the rights of the refugees to return and enjoy their properties," said Yiannakis Shekersavas, a spokesman for the group.

The rightwing Greek-Cypriot press was also critical of the plan. Simerini condemned the plan as "a nightmare settlement." Another rightwing newspaper, Mahi, said the plan placed the Greek Cypriot side "in the vice of blackmail."

The Turkish reaction was mixed. "Toward a solution in Cyprus," proclaimed the mainland leftwing daily, Radikal, which hailed the plan as "territory for the Greek-Cypriot, autonomy for the Turk." But the nationalist Ortadogu described it as an "ouster for Turks", believing the plan means the return to Turkey of 35,000 mainland settlers.

If talks fail and only the Greek-Cypriot-controlled part of the island joins the EU, Turkey has threatened to annex northern Cyprus.

And consider a second amazement. Last summer, while the rest of Europe slept, this same nation (within a matter of weeks) abandoned the death penalty, lifted draconian curbs on its press and reached out inclusively towards the separatist minority it had repressed for decades. The biggest victory for human rights in two decades.

It is time to talk about Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is time to think long and hard about a land whose fate affects all our futures. Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who is paid to think about the constitutional future of Europe and its enlargement, has done enough pondering already. No, he tells Le Monde, Turkey must "never" be allowed to join the EU. It has "a different culture, a different approach, a different way of life. It is a country close to Europe, an important country: but it is not a European country."

There now ... somebody of weight, somebody of influence, has said out loud what EU politicians and diplomats have been muttering behind their hands for years. Turkey may be sweet-talked and strung along, led to believe that what 70% of its population wants most dearly - a seat in the Brussels sun - is possible, and attainable to a fixed timetable. But, when push comes to shove, it can just shove off. Our fine words are the dross of hypocrisy.

And that does matter in crucial ways. It matters here and now, in Britain, just down the road from where I live. Down that road, Greeks and Turks, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, live and work side by side. Here's a Greek Orthodox church. Here's a mosque. Can Cyprus - a scar of a crisis waiting to re-open - be put back together again? Can the "will of the UN" we hear so much about be respected at last? Can ancient enemies find modern peace?

It could matter within a few months if Turkey is spurned again at the Copenhagen enlargement summit and decides to annex Northern Cyprus. It will matter, make no mistake, a dozen or so years on, if Turkey does join the EU and millions of those (swiftly proliferating) 68 million follow their brothers and sisters into Europe - into Germany and France and the UK - chasing work and a chance of prosperity: but this time with the rights of full EU citizens.

It matters immediately in the squeeze on Saddam. Mr Erdogan and his AKP (Justice and Development Party) are Islamists. Their military help is make or break for any successful strike at Baghdad. Through their winning campaign, they sought to withhold such help. Today, offering reassurance in victory, they promise to do anything the UN wants. But it's a fault line in the planning.

This election result did not come out the way those "western experts" we pay to read the runes predicted. It brings the threat of yet another army coup closer. And it raises fundamental questions of principle. We say - Bush says, Blair says - that we have a mission to bring democracy to the Muslim world, beginning with Iraq. Well, good on us. But do we start by conniving at the destruction of a genuinely democratic Muslim government on our doorstep?

The thing that matters most of all, though, is to look into the dark heart of the Europe we're building. Is it fundamentally sort of white-ish and kind of Christian? Does Mr Giscard d'Estaing ring bells when he talks about the impossibility of absorbing "different ways of life"?

More visceral issues flood in every which way, of course. There is the Washington-Ankara connection. Washington can't understand why Europe doesn't just turn the key and sweep Turkey in tomorrow (like Mexico into the North American Free Trade Agreement). There is the Nato bind. Turkey is a vital member and (sotto voce) Nato enlargement has been proceeding rather faster than the EU version. Get those two enlargements tangled and you're in trouble. There is the dear old EU debate about "wider and shallower" or "narrower and deeper" integration, which sets the French hopping.

Don't underestimate the likelihood of this stew boiling over. What happens to Turkey, and Turkey's place in the world, is high on most diplomatic agendas. From wars against terror to wars against poverty, it's the tops. But we still have to confront and answer the central question. Is Turkey - inside the Council of Europe, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and Nato - nevertheless not European? Is Mr Giscard d'Estaing dismally, finally right?

The tawdry truth is that, yes ... racism and cultural bigotry and fear and economic failure still stalk the Europe and Britain in which we live; that France can't cope with its Algerians, Germany with its existing Turks - and perhaps we can't cope either. So close the door quietly, muttering excuses.

And the hope, with great expectations attached? That those summer human-rights reforms in Ankara, the transforming magic of the EU we forget, is only the start of freedom's wonders. That when Mr Erdogan offers a Cyprus solution at last, he means it. That our Europe of declining birth rates will need the youth and dynamism Turkey brings. That our bravest new world, inescapably, joyously, is multi-cultural and multi-ethnic.

Travel with trepidation, I think. But above all: travel hopefully.