By Leyla Boulton in Ankara
Financial Times; Nov 13, 2002

The United Nations has put the two squabbling communities in Cyprus up against the wall by presenting them with a detailed peace plan and asking them to reach an outline agreement within a month.

The majority Greek Cypriots and minority Turkish Cypriots have been arguing for nearly 30 years about how to re-unite their island in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkish troops occupied the northern third in 1974 in response to a Greek Cypriot coup backed by the then military regime in Athens.

Now the UN has seized the initiative at a crucial moment. At their summit in Copenhagen starting on 12 December, leaders of the European Union are due to approve the admission of Cyprus along with a group of eastern European states and Malta.

The fate of the UN plan will decide whether Cyprus joins the EU as a whole, or divided.

Threats

Failure would mean in reality that membership would apply only to the southern two thirds of the island under its internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government.

The self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Turkey, would remain outside the EU.

In the past, Turkey has threatened to annex the Turkish Cypriot zone if this happens. In response, its ancient rival Greece - already a member of the EU - has threatened to block the whole next stage of enlargement if Cyprus is not admitted.

These apocalyptic noises have been muted recently. And the warming of relations between Greece and Turkey over the past few years has encouraged hopes that a solution can be found.

The situation is hard to predict, since a party led by former Islamists is about to take power in Ankara.

But its public stance is moderate, and the party leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has thrown his weight behind the latest effort to re-unify Cyprus.

Mr Erdogan said solving the Cyprus issue would not just accelerate the EU process - it would also be a concrete and useful step in overcoming many problems between Turkey and Greece.

Differences over Turkey

Turkey's influence over the Turkish Cypriots will be essential to any settlement.

But in return it will want European leaders to set a date for starting negotiations on its own EU membership.

So Cyprus is crucial to Turkey's relations with Europe, and to its political stance in the wider world.

The United States is pressing the EU to admit Turkey, already a member of Nato, in order to consolidate its strategic relationship with the West. Turkey will be vital to any military campaign against Iraq.

Britain thinks the same way, and both the British and Americans have contributed to the UN Cyprus plan.

But many in the EU remain doubtful about Turkish membership - last week former French president Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, who chairs the convention on Europe's future, said Turkey was not a European country.

On balance, though, there are various pressures in favour of a Cyprus settlement that the UN is trying to exploit.

After months of fruitless talks between the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, it is trying again to use the looming EU deadline as a catalyst.

Power structure

This time, in a change of tactic, the UN has presented its own comprehensive peace plan.

It is not quite "take it or leave it", but the idea is that changes should be relatively minor and agreed by both sides. It is not just a list of options.

The bulky document covers all aspects of the Cyprus dispute, including territorial adjustment between the two zones, compensation for dispossessed property owners, and security - the intention is that Cyprus will be demilitarised.

But as ever the crux of the problem is the structure of government and how the two communities will share power.

The Greek Cypriots have insisted on a single state, albeit on a federal model with only a few powers reserved for the centre.

The Turkish Cypriots have talked of a confederation of more or less independent states, demanding that the sovereignty of their own entity be recognised first.

The UN plan tries to get away from this entrenched language.

It avoids the terms federation or confederation. Instead it defines the new Cyprus as an indissoluble partnership, with a common state government and two equal component states.

Balancing act

The emphasis on equality is designed to appeal to the Turkish Cypriots.

On the other hand, the plan says that Cyprus will have a single sovereignty and international legal personality: that is one of the Greek Cypriots' bottom lines.

The Greek Cypriots should also like the provision that the membership of the Presidential Council - in effect a collective head of state - will be proportional to population. They make up more than three-quarters of the population.

But they are thought to dislike the proposal for rotating the president and vice-president of the council every 10 months, so that neither community can hold the president's office for more than two consecutive terms. The plan is a delicate balancing act that could easily come crashing down.

Both Greek and Turkish Cypriots will have to make painful compromises if agreement is to be reached.

The past history of this intractable dispute is discouraging. But the international context now is as promising as it is ever likely to be.

By Jean Christou

THE NATIONAL Council will decide on Monday whether to accept UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan's proposed solution as a basis for further negotiations after President Glafcos Clerides returns from consultation in Athens at the weekend, government spokesman Michalis Papapetrou said yesterday.

"The council will study all aspects and an answer will be given after the Council meeting next week," Papapetrou told journalists after the two-hour meeting during which party leaders were given a copy of the 137-page plan plus an 18-page analysis drawn up by Attorney-general Alecos Markides.

Quizzed on the plan, which was submitted by the UN to the two leaders on Monday, Papapetrou said discussions had not begun as yet because the proposal has not been studied in depth. "We cannot say anything at this time," the government spokesman said. "Some suggestions were made but we will not announce anything at this time." He did say however that the Cypriot people would "have the last word" on the proposal, which covers the four core issues of the Cyprus problem, governance, territory, property and security. It is understood that both sides are seeking clarification from the UN on several aspects of the proposal.

According to a Reuters report, the plan would allow 85,000 Greek Cypriots return to their homes and 42,000 Turkish Cypriots displaced under territorial trade-offs that would see the Turkish-controlled areas reduced from 37 per cent to 28.5 per cent.

Maps, not included with the nine-page summary text released yesterday, envisage the return of the ghost town of Famagusta, Morphou and some villages north east of Nicosia plus the possibility of bringing parts of the Karpass peninsula on the island's north easternmost coast back under Greek control. The adjustments are considered to be an improvement on the last UN plan submitted in 1992 because they allow for 20 per cent less Turkish Cypriot displacement and 10 per cent more Greek Cypriots to return.

While the international community hailed the plan yesterday, reaction from the two sides has been cautious and subdued with both saying they need time to study it. The UN wants an answer in seven days on whether or not the sides wish to move forward within the proposed framework.

It is understood that the major international players, the UN, US and the EU would like to see a preliminary agreement signed on the sidelines of the EU summit in Copenhagen next month when Cyprus is due to be given the green light for membership. Provisions that are not agreed on by then would be further negotiated and agreed by the end of February and a referendum held in March, Cyprus News Agency reports said, quoting diplomatic sources in New York.

From the Greek Cypriot side, only Cyprus' chief negotiator at the EU, George Vassiliou, commented yesterday on the proposal, describing it as success and saying that he did not consider it an ultimatum or a form of blackmail. ''It is clear that Cyprus will join the EU, if all goes well," he said. "Consequently Turkey, faced with the dilemma of seeing Cyprus joining without progress towards a settlement, was forced to change its tune and gave the green light to the UN to submit a solution plan."

Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, who is recovering from heart surgery he underwent last month in New York yesterday visited Turkey's UN mission the plan in his first public appearance in over four weeks. "This is my first outing, in order to look at the plan," Denktash told journalists. "So I haven't looked at the plan yet. We shall look at it. We shall see what we can do with it," he said.

After the meeting Denktash was reported to have said that there were both "positive and negative aspects to the plan".

Earlier reports said Denktash had objected to several points in the plan. Denktash aide Mumtaz Soysal told Turkish television channel NTV the plan appeared to fall short. "The first impression is that (the plan) does not reflect the Turkish side's requests," he said. "Some hope the sides will reach a comprehensive agreement within several weeks. This is hoping for the impossible," said Soysal.

"If this becomes an ultimatum, a solution reached under an ultimatum will be no good." He was backed by outgoing Turkish Foreign Minister Sukru Sina Gurel, a hardliner on Cyprus. "Saying 'let us solve the Cyprus problem in a week and take care of it in line with the EU calendar' would be an injustice to those who are directly involved in the dispute and whose long-term interests would be affected by such a solution or non-solution," said Gurel.

The most positive signal from the Turkish side came from Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose party is set to form Turkey's next government. He said a solution would help Turkey's own ambitions to join the EU as well as its relations with Greece.

"No matter how much we say 'It's not related, they're not linked', solving the Cyprus issue would not just accelerate the EU process, but also be a concrete and useful step to overcoming many problems between Turkey and Greece," Erdogan was quoted as saying by the state-run Anatolian news agency.

In Athens, Greek government spokesman Christos Protopapas hailed the UN plan but expressed concern that Turkey had not stated its views on the proposed settlement. "I am optimistic," Protopapas said. "It is a very important opportunity for both Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, and for security in the eastern Mediterranean region." Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou expressed the hope that there would be a complete agreement by December. "We want a solution to the Cyprus problem, for years we have been seeking the intervention of the international community, therefore let's use it", he said.

In Brussels European Union Commissioner responsible for enlargement Gunter Verheugen described the plan as "balanced" and urged the two sides to reach an agreement before the Copenhagen summit but he made it clear that Turkey should not use the Cyprus issue as a tool to further its own EU aspirations by trading off a solution for a starting date for accession negotiations.

He said the EU must not decide to give Ankara a date until it considers that Turkey has fulfilled the political criteria for membership. He said that Turkey was a candidate country like all other applicants and could not be treated differently and that no other candidate country has asked and received a date for the start of membership talks before it was established that they meet the Copenhagen criteria respecting democratic principles.

European Commission President Romano Prodi said the EU would settle for "second best" and admit a divided Cyprus unless there was a political settlement before next month's EU summit. "I should have been happy to have the whole of Cyprus in. Because of the political division, we have to choose the second best - to have part of Cyprus in," Prodi said in an interview with Reuters. "If there are new political events that make possible the first choice, we are happy," he said.

European Parliament President, Pat Cox, said the UN plan was" an historic and ground-breaking initiative" and provided "the best chance after decades of deadlock both for reunification and for enabling a united Cyprus to join the EU."

"It will require every ounce of the considerable reserves of wisdom and political and moral courage of which Mr Clerides and Mr Denktash should be capable," Cox said. "I do not doubt that they will rise to the task."

By Jean Christou

THE CONTENTS of the UN blueprint for a solution, presented to the two sides on Monday, may be negotiable but the diplomatic community yesterday made it clear this was a take-it-or-leave-it, last-ditch attempt at resolving the Cyprus problem.

"It is not a take it or leave it deal as far as the details are concerned but at the moment they have to reject it or go along with it," said one diplomatic source.

"There will be negotiations on the details and these will probably be tricky but in general it is indeed a take it or leave it proposal."

With the EU summit at Copenhagen looming in mid-December, the Greek Cypriot side is already tied to making the best of what has been submitted. Going to Denmark without progress would look bad in the eyes of the EU, despite its confirmed pledge to admit a divided island.

"This indeed would cause a great problem because the Secretary-general, who has the support of everybody in the international community has listened to the two sides for months and years now and he knows the positions of both sides. He believes the gaps can be bridged and has suggested this compromise so whoever rejects this goes against the explicit suggestions of the Secretary-general," the source said. "This is the last chance before the decision on EU enlargement and after this decision is taken there will be a totally new situation in Cyprus."

The source said that for the moment the international community is leaving it to the two sides to make up their minds and analyse the contents of the submission for at least the next seven days.

"We are keeping our fingers crossed that it will be accepted," the source said. "The bottom line is that they take it or leave it as a deal and negotiate on the details."

In a brief but uncompromising statement the British High Commission in Nicosia pulled no punches on how it felt the two sides should react to the blueprint.

"The Cyprus problem has gone on for too long," said spokesman Stuart Summers. "The parties must seize this historic opportunity to find a settlement but tough decisions will be required. Too many opportunities in the past have been missed and the parties must not allow this one to slip by. At first glance we believe the UN has come up with a fair and balanced proposal and a good basis on which to reach a final deal and we are energetically supporting their efforts."

A second diplomatic source admitted that the EU would not look favourably on any negative rumblings from the Greek Cypriot side before Copenhagen, even though the island is guaranteed entry even if divided. "It is generally accepted that progress on the political issue would make the road to Europe much smoother," the source said.

But President Glafcos Clerides has already said he would not agree to any unacceptable solution in order to secure EU accession.

Commenting on what might happen if any negotiations on the plan completely break down, the second source said: "I don't think anybody is contemplating in any manner what those consequences might be." The source admitted there were aspects to the plan that would not appeal to either side.

"How could any plan appeal to both sides when you've had such differences?" he asked. "The question is whether or not this is the best opportunity that is available."

By Jean Christou

POLITICAL ANALYSTS believe there is a lot in the UN Secretary-general's plan that should please both sides but foresee a number of sticking points, mainly concerning the issue of governance.

"At first glance it is a federal model and I think in a broad sense does conform with UN resolutions and the EU acquis communautaire but it gets problematic in terms of the executive and also on the constitution, the Treaty of Guarantee and the compensation issue," said James Ker-Lindsay, director of the Nicosia-based think tank Civilitas Research.

"There is a lot there that says to the Greek Cypriots 'there is a lot that ties in with the bi-zonal, bi-communal federation you have been calling for'. It is not a confederation by any means. It's a typically federal model looking at first glance and in that sense there is a lot the Greek Cypriots should be happy about."

Commenting on the retention of the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, under which Greece, Turkey and Britain are guarantor powers of Cyprus' independence, Ker-Lindsay said there was no question of abolishing it.

"It had to be there," he said. "Any decision reached which got rid of the Treaty of Guarantee would have been rejected immediately by the Turkish Cypriots. "It's not the best thing for the Greek Cypriots because they would have been trying to disassociate Turkish involvement but they are not going to get that."

He said the provision that Cyprus shall sign and ratify the EU Treaty of Accession was very important because it will prevent Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash from trying to hold off on Cyprus' accession until Turkey is ready. "This has been one of his arguments all along and this should please the Greek Cypriot side," Ker-Lindsay said.

Similarly the provision that says Cyprus shall support Turkey's EU entry should please Ankara.

"Turkey will want to see this written in stone," he said. "It balances out the other provision and although it might not please everyone it's not a deal breaker."

The provision prohibiting secession is also very important for the Greek Cypriot side, Ker-Lindsay said because it has always been a concern that Denktash would take recognition and run away with it as a means to partition.

"There is a certain looseness to the proposal even though saying the power would be vested in a central state, which implies a federal model," he added, referring to a provision, which would require both sides to discuss cooperation agreements that would involve talking to each other.

"I think it's a way of making the Turkish Cypriots feel they have a say on this and get to bargain with the other 'state' that exists across the line. I think this could be problematic for the Greek Cypriot side. the idea of having to reach agreements with the Turkish Cypriots but its necessary to give them some sort of feeling that they must be seen to have own sovereignty," Ker-Lindsay said.

He said however that bigger problems would probably arise in relation to the composition of parliament.

The UN proposal provides for an upper chamber with 50-50 representation and a lower chamber with proportional representation based on the size of the populations. But Turkish Cypriot participation in the lower house should never be less than 25 per cent, the proposal said.

When we get to the issue of parliament this is when we start getting into points that are likely to be more problematic," Ker-Lindsay said.

"With the 25 per cent representation Turkish Cypriots would be over represented in the lower house but at the same time the limit means Greek Cypriots will always be in a majority there. In 1960 it was 70-30 so this is a reduction for the Turkish Cypriots. What's more worrying is the idea of senate with 50-50. There is lots of room for deadlock to be reached there."

He said the rotating presidency would also be likely to pose some problems although it does recognise the numerical majority of the Greek Cypriots.

Ker-Lindsay also believes security could pose a problem. The plan provides for demilitarisation of the island and the reduction of Greek and Turkish Cypriot contingents to four digit figures, yet to be determined. Turkish troops would also be phased out eventually but there is a provision that Cyprus will not put its territory at the disposal of international military operations without the consent of Greece and Turkey.

"This might give Turkey a right of veto into European defence structures," Ker-Lindsay said. "Because it means that Turkish acceptance would be required for the operation of the EU rapid reaction force in Cyprus."

As far as the issue of property is concerned, Ker-Lindsay said that Greek Cypriots have known for a very long time that they would not all be getting their properties back.

"But anyone signing this agreement will have to be prepared to do the hard bargaining with the refugees groups here and explain this. This also ties in with the value of the property. People will say 1974 wasn't a tourist destination then and its now worth more than '74 prices. There could be a problem there and also, who is going to pay?"

Greek Cypriot analyst Sofronis Sofroniou said the biggest issues that concern the Greek Cypriots would be the continued presence of Turkish troops and settlers on the island. He said this was the biggest "time bomb" in Cyprus.

"People are afraid of the settlers flooding in if the north has the power to accept any settlers and give them citizenship," he said. "The Treaty of Guarantee is an issue but people realise it can't be got rid of right away. My feeling is that there is something baroque about the constitution. It seems to be bits and pieces form here and there. It will have to be simplified."

Sofroniou said he believes that fear was the biggest obstacle to reaching a settlement. "Fear that things will not run smoothly and that we will have new adventures," he said. "Fear about the future and Turkish intentions, which are justified because Turkey changes its line a lot."

He said he believed however that President Glafcos Clerides and Greece's Prime Minster Costas Simitis were realistic enough to accept painful compromises.

"I think the problem again will be the Turks who are not shifting at all. Unless there is a new philosophy in Turkey I don't see any outcome out of this."

Sofroniou said that because they are now in such a bad position, the Turkish Cypriot side has a lot to gain from the proposed settlement. "They can join the EU and prosper under conditions of freedom and economic progress," he said. "What else do they want? They have nothing to fear. That's why I don't understand. What do they fear?"

By George Psyllides

THE SUBMISSION of the UN draft Cyprus solution dominated the Greek and Turkish Cypriot press yesterday with most newspapers commenting on the main points of the outline.

Phileleftheros reported that it was obvious UN Secretary-general Kofi Annan aimed to achieve an agreement before the EU Summit of Copenhagen in December and having referendums on March 30, 2003.

Under the headline 'Simitis said the first 'yes'', Politis reported on the plan, quoting Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis who said it was a good starting point for negotiations. Both Simitis and President Glafcos Clerides assured that they would not accept a solution that would go beyond the line drawn by the Greek Cypriot side.

Simerini commented that Athens and Nicosia would find themselves before "nightmare dilemmas" in the next month. Under the headline 'Nightmare solution plan,' the daily said the dilemmas concerned the fate of the Republic of Cyprus, the viability of a solution, and the legalisation of the Turkish invasion and its effects.

Communist mouthpiece Haravghi said tough negotiations were expected following the submission of the plan, which contains provisions that satisfy and others, which did not satisfy the Greek Cypriot side.

Machi described the week until the two sides reply to the UN Secretary-general if they accept the plan as a base for negotiation as 'Passion Week', while Alithia said the plan was a basis for negotiation but with time pressures.

Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris yesterday gave an outline of the main points of the plan while under the headline 'New Phase', Kibrisli commented that a new page has been opened in the Cyprus problem and the two sides were entering a negotiation process for a new partnership. Yeniduzen also provided an outline of the plan's main points while extremist Volkan said that 70,000 Turkish Cypriots were going to become refugees for the third time. The daily published a map indicating the areas it claims would be returned to the Greek Cypriots, commenting that the issue of territory was a trap.

Opposition daily Afrika carried its report on the developments under the headline 'The plan is new, Denktash is old'. The daily commented that Denktash would enter the negotiations with the scope of preventing Cyprus from entering the EU.

The plan was also the main topic in the Greek newspapers with To Vima reporting that a referendum would be held on March 30 for a solution with Simitis saying the negotiations would be tough.

Ethnos headlined its story 'Green light with smiles and thorns' while Eleftherotypia said Nicosia and Athens look like they would be discussing the plan despite their concerns.

Kathimerini reported that the chances for finding a solution were 50-50 and Ta Nea said the rotating presidency was a minefield.