Hopes of a historic deal to reunify the divided island of Cyprus, and to give Turkey a date to start talks on EU membership, hung in the balance last night on the eve of a crucial European summit in Copenhagen.
With the prospects of an agreement on Cyprus thought to be better than at any time since 1974, diplomats were working frantically to try to resolve a complex series of negotiations before today's meeting of leaders.
If the package succeeds, there will be a political commitment from the leaders of the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities to back a UN reunification proposal, with a timetable to finish negotiations. Turkey would be given the prospect of starting EU membership talks no later than 2005, provided Ankara improves its human rights record to meet European standards.
Yesterday Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, took a hard line, insisting there was no prospect of a deal before the end of the talks in Copenhagen, but not closing the door on the UN plan.
"We're not in a position to sign a document," he said. "We're not running away from negotiating. Give us time to negotiate with the Greek Cypriots." Ankara knows its help in persuading Turkish Cypriots to back the UN plan, and the removal of its veto over the EU's rapid reaction force having access to Nato's planning capabilities, will have a crucial bearing on its bid for membership talks. While there is optimism that a deal could be clinched, diplomats agree that relations with Turkey are at a crucial juncture.
Yesterday Recip Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of Turkey's ruling party, also took a tough line, saying he would look elsewhere if the EU failed to grant a date for entry talks this week, and suggested joining the North American Free Trade Agreement.
On the table is a Franco-German plan to offer Turkey membership talks in 2005 if they have met human rights standards by 2004. That has been rejected by Ankara, which wants to start negotiations with the EU before it admits 10 new member states in May 2004. It fears that a pledge given by the present 15 member states might be overturned by a 25-strong EU.
Britain is among a handful of countries backing the Turkish position, with France resisting change. President George Bush lobbied on behalf of Turkey yesterday
THE INDEPENDENT
By George Psyllides
TURKISH Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash last night appeared to be the main obstacle in the path of a Cyprus
Turkey waits for date with EU
With strong pressure from the US for a favourable outcome for its strategic Nato ally, and high expectations from the new government in Ankara, the stakes could hardly be higher.
But receding chances for a speedy peace settlement in Cyprus cast a cloud over the summit, whose main mission is to invite 10 new members, eight of them from eastern Europe, to join and erase cold war boundaries.
Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of Turkey's newly elected Islamist Justice and Development party, said on arriving here from the US that he was confident that EU leaders would award his country "an appropriate date by the end of 2003."
EU diplomats believe that he may have been influenced by powerful backing from Washington and has underestimated divisions within the union, which is worried about the European credentials of a poor and populous Muslim country.
"This summit will not finish without giving a powerful country like Turkey ... a date to begin negotiations," Mr Erdogan predicted confidently.
Earlier, he was reported as saying: "If the EU doesn't accept us then we will find a solution on our own," and telling President George Bush that Turkey could join the North Atlantic Free Trade Area.
It seems certain however, that Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, - all former communist countries - as well as Cyprus and Malta - will join the EU in an unprecedented "big bang" in May 2004, posing difficult questions about how it will develop in future.
It is far less clear whether the pressure of expectations and time - the summit is due to end tomorrow but may well run into Saturday - will produce a satisfactory outcome for Turkey, desperate for an early date to start talks on joining what some EU politicians still see as a "Christian club."
President Bush kept up the pressure on the Copenhagen summit by calling the Danish prime minister Anders Rasmussen yesterday.
"We will do our utmost to support the reform process in Turkey but at the same time, I stressed that according to the rules of the EU a candidate country must fulfil certain political criteria to get a date for the start of accession negotiations," Mr Rasmussen said later.
"I will not be pressured, but of course I listen carefully to those who offer me good advice. President Bush is well aware of the fact that this is a European decision," he added.
The US is supporting Turkey, crucial to any plans to invade neighbouring Iraq. So are Britain, Spain and Italy, the EU's most pro-American members. But others are distinctly lukewarm.
The majority support a Franco-German call to start accession negotiations in 2005 and then only if Turkey passes a human rights review in 2004.
Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission, reflected these doubts, warning in Brussels against giving Turkey special treatment, and saying the EU had set out strict rules for all newcomers.
Hopes were also fading for a speedy resolution of the Cyprus dispute, where the union badly wants Ankara to bring pressure to bear.
Rauf Denktash, the ailing Turkish Cypriot leader, said bluntly that it would not be possible to reach agreement on the basis of a UN peace plan during the Danish summit, making it impossible for the island to join as a reunited single entity.
Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general had been considering flying to Copenhagen to support a deal, but that now seemed unlikely, UN officials said.
Mr Rasmussen, meanwhile, said he was confident the summit could finalise the laboriously negotiated enlargement package.
Like previous EU enlargements, its biggest-ever boils down to hard cash. Four years after negotiations began on issues ranging from financial services to the environment, the last unresolved issue is a demand that the newcomers be given the full €42.5bn (£27bn) originally budgeted in 1999.
Denmark's "final" offer falls €2bn short of that, but the EU's main net contributors, led by Germany, insist they can afford no more.
Other problems have been resolved over ostensibly trivial but highly symbolic issues such as Baltic herrings, Maltese finches, Latvian lynx, and Czech potato starch.
Blair faces split on when the EU will talk Turkey
EUROPEAN heads of government were squaring up for a bitter dispute over Turkey’s membership of the European Union last night, with Britain and Italy joining forces against France and Germany to press for early entry talks.
Tony Blair played the anti-terrorism card as he arrived in Copenhagen, demanding that the EU set a formal date for the start of negotiations "to send a signal to the wider Islamic world that we want to engage with them".
Mr Blair went straight into a pre-summit meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Turkey’s ruling AK party, in a calculated show of solidarity with the Turks. The Prime Minister told Turkish leaders that 2005 — the year favoured by France and Germany — was too late to start negotiations on Turkish entry. Britain, Italy and four other EU members are backing 2004. Turkey insists that it will be ready to start next year.
Mr Blair had told his Cabinet that the summit "could transform relationships with Turkey". He said: "We cannot afford to pass up the chance of placing Turkey on the path to modernisation."
In so enthusiastically backing Turkey’s cause, Mr Blair put himself on course for his second consecutive summit clash with Jacques Chirac, the French President. France, Germany and an apparent majority of the EU prefer a much more cautious timetable with negotiations starting in July 2005, provided that Turkey successfully completes a review on human rights and democracy by the previous December. Abdullah Gul, the Turkish Prime Minister, has insisted that Ankara still wants a starting date next year.
Turkey’s case has been pushed throughout the week by President Bush and Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State. General Powell has urged that talks should start even if Turkey’s human-rights reforms are incomplete.
There is resentment in the 2005 camp over the intervention of the United States, which is pushing Turkey’s case because it will need its support in the event of a war against President Saddam Hussein.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish Prime Minister, said that he had told President Bush in a conversation on Wednesday that it had to be a "European decision". He felt that a compromise could be reached.
The first item on the summit agenda was a swift reminder of the differences that exist. Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President, brought heads of government up to date on the work of the Convention on the Future of Europe, which he chairs. He provoked controversy last month by suggesting that Turkey was "not a European country" and had a "different culture, different approach and a different way of life".
Turkey’s admission, he declared, would mean "the end of the EU".
Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, said that 2004 was supported by Britain, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Portugal and Italy. "That gives Turkey one year to put into effect the reforms that are needed to open its markets and to reform its constitution and human rights." He told Turkish journalists: "I will be the advocate of your cause because I really believe in it and will defend it as if it were my own."
Mr Gul said after a meeting with Costas Simitis, the Greek Prime Minister, that Turkey was ready to meet all the EU conditions, known as the Copenhagen criteria because they were set out at a summit here in 1993. Turkey wants its own accession process to be irrevocable before the ten new EU countries, including Cyprus, become full members in May 2004.
Mr Erdogan’s joint meeting today with M Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor, could be crucial to the summit outcome.
Rome seeks second bite at treaty
Italy is pressing for the next big advance in European integration to be brought forward a year to 2003, so that it can be sealed by another Treaty of Rome.
Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, wants work in the Convention on Europe’s Future speeded up, and the subsequent inter-governmental conference brought forward, so that the final summit can happen during Italy’s presidency of the EU in the second half of next year. The Italian capital gave its name to the treaty that in 1957 inaugurated the original six-member Common Market.
Signor Berlusconi was arguing to fellow leaders last night that it would be appropriate for Rome to host the next landmark summit. Britain is understood to be unenthusiastic.
THE TIMES